Base-Rate Fallacy In assessing a situation, an analyst sometimes has two kinds of evidence available--specific evidence about the individual case at hand, and numerical data that summarize information about many similar cases. The base rate fallacy shows us that false positives are much more likely than you’d expect from a \(p < 0.05\) criterion for significance. “If the result of the test is positive, what is the chance that you have the disease” – I get 50%. Someone making the 'base rate fallacy' would incorrectly claim that there is a 99% chance that they are a terrorist, because 'the' failure rate of the camera is always 1%. In short, it describes the tendency of people to focus on case specific information and to ignore broader base rate information when … The base rate fallacy and its impact on decision making was first popularised by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970’s. I formulated the question in that way deliberately, otherwise the base rate fallacy doesn’t come in to play. The base-rate fallacy is people's tendency to ignore base rates in favor of, e.g., individuating information (when such is available), rather than integrate the two. The normative method for integrating base rates (prior probabilities) and featural evidence (likelihoods) is given by Bayes' rule. The so-called “Base Rate Fallacy” comes into play in terms of medical diagnoses. Nope. ... calculating logic. Taxonomy: Logical Fallacy > Formal Fallacy > Probabilistic Fallacy > The Base Rate Fallacy Alias: Neglecting Base Rates 1 Thought Experiment: Suppose that the rate of disease D is three times higher among homosexuals than among heterosexuals, that is, the percentage of homosexuals who have D is three times the percentage of heterosexuals who have it. The base rate fallacy occurs when the base rate for one option is substantially higher than for another. The calculation below will show that the chances they are a terrorist are actually near 1%, not near 99%. This type of numerical information is called a base rate or prior probability. The post is a tad unclear. June 9, 2012 June 9, 2012 ~ Dave Nicolette ~ 1 Comment. Example Consider testing for a rare medical condition, such as one that affects only 4% (1 in 25) of a population. Base Rate Fallacy Defined Over half of car accidents occur within five miles of home, according to a report by Progressive Insurance in 2002. Philosophy 1200 Univeristy of Missouri (Unit 3) Heuristics and Base Rate Fallacies study guide by jeremy_warden includes 9 questions covering vocabulary, terms and more. base rate fallacy The Vulcan choice. Rationale: Start with 10000 people. Most modern research doesn’t make one significance test, however; modern studies compare the effects of a variety of factors, seeking to … Bala Narayanaswamy says: 22nd June at 09:00 Hi . Base Rate Fallacy. 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